Marjorie Dudley

What if one of the greatest obstacles to your success isn’t your circumstances, your people, or even your strategy?

What if it’s what you’ve already decided to believe about them?

There’s a fascinating psychological phenomenon called confirmation bias, and it may be influencing your leadership more than you realize.

In a 1998 paper published in the Review of General Psychology, researcher Raymond Nickerson explored how people tend to seek out and interpret information in ways that support their existing beliefs and expectations.

In other words, we don’t always see situations as objectively as we think we do. Our expectations influence what we notice, what we believe, and how we interpret the evidence in front of us.

And while this is a normal part of human cognition, it can have enormous consequences for leaders.

Consider three places where confirmation bias might be quietly working against you.

1. Have You Already Given Up on Someone?

Think about an employee, colleague, or team member who has disappointed you.

Maybe they’ve missed expectations repeatedly. Maybe you’ve had the same conversation a dozen times. Maybe you’ve quietly concluded that they’re just never going to get it.

Now ask yourself something uncomfortable.

Are you still looking for evidence of their potential, or are you only noticing evidence of their limitations?

When someone makes a mistake, does it confirm what you’ve already decided about them? When they make progress, do you recognize it with the same intensity?

There’s a related leadership phenomenon known as the Pygmalion effect, sometimes called the self-fulfilling prophecy, in which a leader’s expectations can influence the performance of the people they lead.

Our beliefs don’t just affect how we evaluate others. They can influence how we coach them, challenge them, invest in them, and ultimately develop them.

That doesn’t mean ignoring poor performance or eliminating accountability.

It means making sure our judgments are based on current evidence rather than yesterday’s conclusions.

Sometimes the person who needs a fresh start isn’t your employee. It’s you.

2. Have You Already Given Up on Your Goals?

We’re entering the final stretch of the year. And for some leaders, the internal conversation has already started.

We’re too far behind.

There’s not enough time.

We’ll just start fresh in January.

But here’s what concerns me about that thinking. Once you’ve decided the year is lost, every setback can become further evidence that you’re right.

A missed sales opportunity? See, it’s not happening.

A disappointing month? Just more proof.

A challenging conversation? Why bother?

And perhaps most dangerously, you may begin overlooking the very opportunities that could change your trajectory.

The moment you mentally surrender a goal, you risk becoming less willing to recognize the possibilities that could still move you toward it.

Maybe you won’t achieve everything you originally planned this year.

But what could you accomplish with the time you have left this year if you stopped looking for evidence that it’s too late and started asking what’s still possible?

A lot can happen when you refuse to confuse being behind with being defeated.

3. Have You Decided Your Circumstances Are Insurmountable?

Interest rates. Inflation. Tariffs. Elections. Economic uncertainty. Industry disruption. Pick your challenge.

There are legitimate external factors impacting businesses and leaders every single day.

I’m not suggesting we pretend those obstacles don’t exist. Some of them are significant, and some require real adjustments to our expectations and strategies.

But there’s a difference between acknowledging an obstacle and allowing it to become the explanation for everything.

When we decide the market is impossible, we may begin interpreting every lost opportunity as proof.

When we decide customers aren’t spending, we may stop looking for the customers who are.

When we decide growth isn’t possible in this environment, we may stop exploring the innovations, partnerships, or strategic changes that could create it.

The circumstances may be outside our control.

But the questions we ask, the solutions we pursue, and the actions we take are not.

The danger isn’t recognizing how difficult the environment has become. The danger is deciding that difficulty eliminates possibility.

So How Do We Lead Differently?

The answer isn’t simply to think positively. In fact, positive assumptions can create confirmation bias, too. Leaders can become so convinced that everything is going well that they overlook serious warning signs.

The answer is to become more intentional about challenging our assumptions.

Start with three questions:

1. What have I already decided is true? About my people, my goals, or my circumstances?
2. What evidence might I be overlooking? What information would challenge my current belief?
3. What would I do differently if I believed another outcome was possible?

That third question is especially powerful.

Because it moves us from defending our current conclusions to exploring our available choices.

In Lead Yourself First, I talk about the danger of drift, allowing our lives and leadership to be shaped by default rather than design.

Confirmation bias can quietly accelerate that drift.

We form an assumption. We find evidence that supports it. We become increasingly convinced we’re right. And eventually, we stop questioning the conclusion altogether.

That’s not intentional leadership. That’s allowing yesterday’s beliefs to make tomorrow’s decisions.

You will never lead anyone better than you lead yourself.

And sometimes, leading yourself first means having the courage to question what you’ve already decided to believe.

Before you give up on that person, that goal, or that opportunity, ask yourself one final question: Am I seeing the situation for what it really is, or am I only seeing what I’ve already decided it will be?

Stay relentless,

Author | Speaker | Executive Coach

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MarjorieDudley.com
Helping leaders relentlessly pursue their God-given potential.